Everyone’s buzzing over findings released today by the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS) suggesting that laws banning texting behind the wheel may actually increase the number of crashes.

Researchers at the IIHS’ Highway Loss Data Institute (HLDI) compared insurance claims filed in Washington, Minnesota, Louisiana, and California in the months immediately before and after state laws prohibiting texting took effect.  HLDI’s findings show that not only did these texting bans not result in a significant reduction in crashes, but the number of reported crashes “went up, not down, after the bans took effect.”

In all four states, crashes increased among drivers under 25 years old – and California saw crashes spike 12% among that age group, the single biggest increase observed.  Says IIHS President Adrian Lund, “Texting bans haven’t reduced crashes at all. In a perverse twist, crashes increased in 3 of the 4 states we studied after bans were enacted. It’s an indication that texting bans might even increase the risk of texting for drivers who continue to do so despite the laws.”

Lund may be on to something there.  He also points out if drivers were simply ignoring laws against texting, crash rates should remain steady.  Instead, the uptick in crashes suggests something completely different.  Drivers are still texting – but now they might be doing it in a way that makes it even more distracting and dangerous.  The IIHS suggests text-happy drivers respond to a ban by lowering their phones to their laps to hide from the cops.  The result?  Drivers’ eyes are also lowered away from the road.

So – instead of serving to reduce the temptation to text behind the wheel, texting bans may inspire them to be even more distracted.  At least if your phone is propped on your steering wheel as you cruise down the freeway texting, your eyes are still generally directed in front of you.  If you’re staring at your upper legs, you may as well be sitting on your couch for all the good you’re doing yourself or anyone else on the road.  These findings, combined with earlier findings from a variety of sources, call into doubt the effectiveness of current distracted driving.

Meanwhile, Sec. LaHood has come out swinging in response to today’s news, taking to his blog to vehemently rebut IIHS-HLDI’s conclusions.  LaHood points to the apparent success enjoyed by the DOT’s pilot enforcement program, “Phone in One Hand, Ticket in the Other.” Police in Hartford, CT and Syracuse, NY have been cracking down on drivers caught using a handheld device.  An interim report released last week shows that texting while driving has declined nearly 70% in Hartford and by 42% in Syracuse.

Sec. LaHood is right when he calls the IIHS study “misleading;” in many ways, it is.  While it does show a surprising correlation, the IIHS-HLDI findings don’t prove that texting bans increase texting or make it more dangerous.  Sec. LaHood chides IIHS especially for failing to address enforcement, saying “we all know good laws don’t mean anything without tough enforcement.”

Maybe that’s part of the problem exposed by the unexpected increase in post-texting ban crashes.  It’s not enough to put a law on the books – if officials cannot or will not enforce it, it’s largely meaningless.  Conversely, the targeted, high-visibility enforcement happening in Hartford, Connecticut and Syracuse, New York is not feasible on a large scale.  Well-enforced laws are an important part of the solution to distracted driving – but they’re clearly not sufficient to change people’s behavior.